比利时vs摩洛哥足彩
,
university of california san diego
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math 288 - probability
ernst presman
central economics and mathematics institute, russian academy of sciences
a simple proof of an (gittens) index theorem for graphs
abstract:
we consider the problem which informally can be formulated as follows. initially a finite set of independent trials is available. if a decision maker (dm) chooses to test a particular trial she receives a reward depending on the trial tested. as a result of testing a random finite set (possibly empty) of new independent trials is added to the set of available trials, and so on, but the total number of potential trials is finite. a dm knows the rewards and transition probabilities of all trials. on each step she can either stop testing or continue. her goal is to select a testing order and a stopping time to maximize the expected total reward. this problem has a long history and is related to the multi-armed bandit problem with independent arms. we prove that an index can be assigned to each possible trial, and the optimal strategy is to use on each step a trial with maximal index among those available. we give a simple procedure for constructing this index. this is joint work with isaac sonin.
host: ruth williams
june 6, 2003
11:00 am
ap&m 6438
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