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比利时vs摩洛哥足彩 ,
university of california san diego

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probability seminar

priscilla greenwood

arizona state university

autonomous stochastic resonance produces epidemic oscillations of fluctuating size

abstract:

it is known from simulations that stochastic epidemic models such as sir, sirs produce sustained oscillations, whereas the corresponding deterministic models produce damped oscillations. we use multiscale analysis to identify a parameter range in which stochastic sir is approximated by a stochastic combination of sinusoids, where the coefficient processes run on a slow time scale. ornstein-uhlenbeck excursions form an envelope of the epidemic oscillations.

host: ruth williams

november 2, 2006

9:00 am

ap&m 6402

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